Mite planner
Put in what you have and what you plan to do. It shows you what happens. It does not tell you what to do.
The line is your wash count. Its colour is how much of the brood is being damaged — a different question, and the one that decides whether the colony sees spring.
A guess in, a guess out. The shape of the curve is still worth seeing, but the numbers on it are only as good as this line. Wash a hive and come back.
Mites arriving from other hives. The input nobody thinks about and nobody controls.
Expect:
Before-count minus after-count, divided by the before-count. A treatment that should give 95 and gives 60 is telling you something about your mites, and this is where that goes.
The model is Randy Oliver's
Every equation, constant and treatment efficacy here comes from his Varroa Model, © Randy Oliver 2016, used with permission. This is only a different way of putting numbers into it — one line instead of twenty-four columns, and treatments on the day you actually applied them.
For the full model, with colony types, custom profiles and the necessary mite reduction tab, go to scientificbeekeeping.com. Trish Harness maintains a complete web version at chickabuzz.com. Both are free and both took years. If you use them, send them something.